The Energy Price Forecast

The Energy Price Forecast  is a service of the AIEE Observatory Analysis & Forecasting Center and it is a monthly forecast of the trend of energy demand and of the prices of the energy products, providing short-term forecasts, necessary for estimating the fuel costs of the electricity generation.

The Service helps to seize the opportunities arising from the liberalization of energy markets by developing a solid risk management culture.

In fact, the management of the new energy contracts represents a great challenge for operators who need specific information and adequate tools.

Particularly important is the management of the risk connected to the variability of prices, which characterizes the sector, the lack of transparency on formulas and indexing mechanisms.

The service can be personalized to meet the customer’s particular request
Customers interested in other products or energy forecasts, different to those included by the present service, can get a personalized format, to meet their specific requests (in this case the service cost will depend on the quantity and type of the information requested).

Energy price forecast – international

• oil and futures

  Monthly forecasts and stock quotes historical monthly crude oil prices (Brent, WTI, Ural, Iranian light etc.) and Futures (ICE Brent and IPE Gasoil) listed in London

• petroleum products

  Monthly forecasts and stock quotes, historical monthly prices of petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil.)

• coal

  Monthly historical quotes since January 2005 and the outlook of the monthly coal price in the Atlantic and Pacific market, net of taxes, expressed in US Dollar/ton and converted into Euro/ton considering the monthly average of the daily currency rates dollar/euro.

• gas prices on the European hubs

  Historical quotes and monthly forecasts on hub Bunde / Dutch TTF, NBP, Zeebrugge

Energy price forecast – Italy

• Monitoring the Italian gross inland consumption

  Estimate on a monthly basis of the evolution of the Italian gross inland consumption and fuel energy demand (by sources and sector)

• Imported gas in Italy

  Historical monthly quotes and monthly forecasts of natural gas prices at the Italian border, at the three main entrance points of imported gas pipelines and the national average.

• The National Single Price of electricity (PUN)
  Historical quotes, forecasts and updating of the monthly average series of the Single National Price (baseload, peakload e off peak, F1, F2, F3)
• Costs of thermoelectric generation

  Historical series and forecasts of the variable costs of a thermal power plant top-of-the market located at the Italian border and series and forecasts of the variable costs of a thermal power plant with a benchmark efficiency fixed by the Italian Authority for Electricity and Gas, located at the Italian border.

• ITEC-REF
  Historical quotes and forecasts of the average monthly index ITEC-REF, ITECccgt-REF and ITEC12-REF in reference to the fuels price forecast elaborated with the AIEE methodology.
• Gas fuel (PFOR)

  Historical quotes and forecasts for one year on a quarterly basis of the raw gas cost as fixed by the Italian Authority for Electricity and Gas, avoided fuel cost.

• Monitoring the Italian Gas Exchange
  PSV daily quotations (from October 2012) and monthly price forecasts.

Subscription

Subscription requests may refer either to the entire service that parts of it.
The data are for the exclusive use of subscribers, the information cannnot be reproducted or disseminated.

The service subscription is provided on an annual basis. The report will be delivered at the beginning of each month in electronic format (excel tables).
Our team will be at your disposal for any information regarding the subscription or for any integrations and customizations as required.